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Monday, February 28, 2011

BUDGET 2011-12 : HIGHLIGHTS

BUDGET 2011-12 : HIGHLIGHTS
  • Service tax proposals to generate Rs 4000 Cr
  • Unambiguous definitions of input services proposed + Service taxpayers with turnover of Rs 60 lakh exempted from Audit + Penal provisions in Service tax streamlined
  • Service tax levied on hotel accommodation above Rs 1000 per day with 50% abatement + AC Restaurants providing liquor + diagnostic labs + air travel (Rate hiked by Rs 50) + legal services provided by individuals to business
  • Service tax - Cenvat Credit rules to be rationalised
  • Excise proposals to generate Rs 7000 Cr revenue
  • Jumbo rolls import granted exemption
  • MAT rate hiked from 18% to 18.5%
  • Capital goods for mega power projects - excise duty exemption granted to domestic suppliers
  • Hybrid vehicles - full exemption from BCD and CVD
  • Customs duty on inputs for cement industry reduced
  • Export duty on all sorts of export of iron ores raised to 25%
  • Basic customs duty reduced on paper, chemicals, yarns etc
  • Agri equipments - import duty reduced to 2.5%; Micro-irrigation equipment - Customs duty reduced
  • Customs Peak Rate - no change; Rationalisation of Customs rates proposed
  • Branded garments / made-up - Excise duty levied to 10%
  • Excise duty raised from 4% to 5% on items attracting 5% VAT
  • Central Excise exemption withdrawn on 130 consumer items; 8% duty levied
  • CBDT to notify 'Tool-Box' of counter-measures to deal with non-cooperative tax havens
  • Direct taxes proposal to result in Rs 11500 Cr loss
  • Investment linked deduction proposed for fertiliser and affordable housing
  • Foreign dividend in hands of resident Indians to attract 15% tax
  • Surcharge on domestic companies reduced to 5%; MAT levied on developers of SEZ
  • Tax exemption limit raised to Rs 1.8 lakh; Sr Citizens' age reduced from 65 to 60; New category of Sr citizens created for 80 above - Rs five lakh exemption limit fixed
  • Fiscal deficit to be brought down to 4.6%
  • Total expenditure to be Rs 12,50,000 Crore; Gross tax receipts to be Rs 9,25,000 Cr
  • Govt accepts TAGUP Reports on unique projects
  • Sulabh Form to be introduced for small taxpayers
  • Indian Stamp Act to be amended; Govt to table Bill soon; Rs 300 Cr to be given to States to switch over to e-stamping
  • UID Scheme - AADHAR Numbers - Rs 10 lakh numbers to be generated from Oct 1, 2010
  • Rs 1000 Cr more setting up e-courts and judicial reforms
  • Rs 9 lakh ex-gratia payment for para military personnel on disability
  • Rs 200 Cr allocated for cleaning up Lakes of special importance
  • 150th Anniversary of Tagore: Rs 1 Cr Award for promoting Universal Value of Brotherhood
  • Rs 500 Cr more for National Skill Development Council
  • Black Money Problem: 1200 Cases booked for money-laundering in 2010
  • 17% hike in allocation for social sectors
  • Service tax refund to exporters and SEZ Units: A new scheme to be notified soon
  • Rs 300 Cr to promote pulses-village in rain-fed areas
  • Pre-Matric scholarships introduced for SCs / STs
  • Rs 21000 Cr allocated for Sarvasiksha Abhiyan
  • Anganwadi workers to get Rs 3000 per month; Helpers to get Rs 1000
  • FM announces Self-Assessment System in Customs
  • Investment in fertiliser sector to be treated as infrastructure sub-sector
  • Govt to come out with manufacturing policy; to taget 25% growth in next 10 years; Two Committees set up and recommendations to be made available in two months
  • Cold chain warehouses to be recognised as sub-sector of infrastructure
  • Govt to infuse Rs 3000 Cr in equity of NABARD
  • Rs 300 Cr allocated for vegetable centres to be set up
  • Interest subvention for housing loans for poor extended + Rural Housing Fund to get Rs 1000 Cr more
  • Rs 3000 Cr to be allocated to NABARD for handloom weavers
  • To fund micro-finance, Rs 100 Cr corpus to be created with SIDBI
  • LIC Corporation Bill + Insurance Amendment Bill + Banking Amendment Bill, Banking Regulation Act etc to be tabled
  • SEBI-registered Mutual Funds to directly access FIIs' funds + FIIs can invest upto USD 40 bn in bonds
  • Rs 40,000 Cr revenue to be mobilised from disinvestment in 2011-12
  • Direct Transfer of Subsidy on Kerosene. Fertiliser and LPG: Nilekani to submit report by June
  • DTC Bill to be finalized soon + Constitutional Amendment Bill for GST to be tabled in Parliament during Budget Soon + Pilot GST Portal to be put online by June
  • Public Debt Management Agency to be set up
  • Economy to grow at 9% in next fiscal
  • Corruption is a problem for Nation: FM

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Railway Budget 2011-12: The Highlights

Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee presented her third Railway Budget in Parliament on Friday.

Here are the key highlights.
  • Got 85 proposals for PPP
  • High demand for coach, wagons can't be met immediately
  • To set-up single window for PPP approval
  • To set-up rail-based industries for passenger coaches
  • Giving economic share to industrials to invest in rail
  • Some rolling stock materials not available
  • Have to depend on imports for rolling stock material
  • To set up coach factory in Palaghat
  • To set up metro coach factory in Singur
  • To set-up diesel locomotive centre in Manipur
  • Imphal to be connected with rail network soon
  • To set up new coach factory at Kolar via PPP or JV
  • To set up two more wagon units under JV mode
  • To set up two more wagon units in Kerala
  • To set up rail industrial park at new Bongaigaon, Nandigram
  • To set up 700 MW gas-based power plant in Maharashtra
  • Planning 1320 MW thermal power plant in Agra
  • To set up 1300 MW thermal power plant in AP
  • Aiming 700 km of annual rail line addition as Compared to the Current 150 kms 
  • Working on 1000 MW captive power plant in Bihar
  • To build new rail line capacity of 700km versus 180km a year
  • To raise Rs 10,000 crore via tax free bonds
  • Annual plan for FY12 at Rs 57,630 crore
  • Annual gross budgetary support at Rs 20,000 crore
  • Market borrowing at Rs 20,594 crore
  • Rs 13,824 crore for acquisition of rolling stock
  • Doubling spend on gauge conversion to Rs 2,470 crore
  • To spend Rs 9,583 crore for new line in FY12
  • To create fund to implement socially desirable plans
  • Railways earnings likely to exceed Rs 1 lakh crore
  • Three railway zones to implement anti-collision devices
  • To construct 172 rail over bridges in FY12
  • To do away with all unmanned rail crossings in FY12
  • Started e-procurement system to ensure transparency
  • Saved Rs 300 crore on rail re-alignment
  • To give 12,000 acre for dedicated freight corridor
  • 442 station up-gradation to be completed by March
  • To cut booking charge on AC to Rs 10 versus Rs 20
  • Freight loading aim at 993 million tonne in FY12
  • Wagon procurement target at 18,000 units in FY12
  • To launch nice new Duranto, three Shatabdi trains
  • To introduce 56 new express trains
  • Frequency of 17 trains to be increased
  • To fill up 13,000 RPF jobs
  • FY12 operating ratio pegged at 91.1%
  • Lost Rs 2,000 crore in FY11 on iron ore export curbs
  • Disruption cost Rs 1,500 crore loss in FY11
  • Railways saved Rs 3,700 crore due to austerity steps
  • Operating ratio excluding pay panel arrears at 84% now
  • Double-stack container train from Gujarat to Gurgaon
  • Railway earnings set to top Rs 1 lakh crore mark in FY12
  • Expect railways financial health to revive in FY12
  • To see Rs 5,260 crore savings in FY12
  • See Rs 5,258 crore excess funds with railways in FY12
  • Freight target reduced by 20 million tonne to 924 million tonne
  • To complete 1,075 km new rail lines in FY12
  • Aim to complete dedicated freight corridor by December 2016
  • Concession for women senior citizen cut to 58 years versus 60 years
  • To double-line 867 km of rail tracks in FY12
  • To up capacity of 107 Mumbai local trains

Promoters' debts: Investors lose Rs 50,000 crores

Investors are paying heavy price for indebtedness of promoters of many companies. Shares of more than 100 companies, whose promoters pledged at least half of their holdings, have crashed to their lows with prices succumbing to fears of margin calls from lenders, amid bearish market conditions since January this year.

Investors have lost wealth of more than Rs 50,000 crore in these companies. “While deteriorating market conditions led the initial fall in shares, selling pressure intensified subsequently amid forced liquidation by lenders after prices reached to margin touchline,” said Nimish Shah, managing director ,
Fortune Financial Services.

Margin calls are mostly seen in real estate and infrastructure companies in the current market, he added. Promoters of as many as 111 companies pledged anywhere between 50% and as high as 100% of their holdings, shows shareholding information disclosed to stock exchanges for the quarter ended December 31, 2010. Their shares have taken a severe beating with a few plunging as much as 90% plus over their 52-week high values recorded in the past year’s bull run.

ET, however, could not independently determine if margin calls dragged down prices of top losers after the initial fall, leaving it to investors to apply their own judgement on the possible factors driving prices to their lows.

It is likely that promoters of some of the companies may have freed their holdings from pledge partly or fully after December 31 thereby saving themselves from margin calls pressure.

“Promoters of many companies , particularly small and medium-sized , have even borrowed money to be parked in equity that could help them comply with eligibility criteria for listing on stock exchanges,” said KR Choksey Shares and Securities managing director Deven Choksey . He feels that launching SME stock exchanges could help get rid of the practice of borrowing capital, provided companies are allowed listing with lower net worth than required by existing exchanges, like the BSE and the NSE.



Source : ET 

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Oil prices surge as Libya protests mount

Oil prices soared to the highest level in more than two years Tuesday as violence spread in Libya and Moammar Gadhafi’s grip weakened over the country. Only a small amount of Libya’s oil production appeared to have been affected, though analysts fear that revolts will spread to OPEC heavyweights like Iran.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery jumped $4.50, or 5%, to $94.21 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The last time oil traded at that level was 2 October, 2008. The April contract traded as high as $98.48 per barrel.

Libya holds the most oil reserves in Africa and is the world’s 15th-largest crude exporter at 1.2 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. As the Libyan government cracked down on protesters, Western oil companies including Eni and Repsol-YPF temporarily suspended oil production in the country. BP has started evacuating workers.
Any production losses out of Libya could be quickly absorbed by other countries like Saudi Arabia. The official Saudi Press Agency quoted Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali Naimi as saying that Saudi’s production capacity of 12.5 million barrels per day can help “compensate for any shortage in international supplies.” Saudi Arabia currently produces around 8 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency said in a statement on its website that it stands ready “to make oil available to the market in the event of a major supply disruption.” The Wall Street Journal reports that the IEA plans to meet this week to discuss the possible release of strategic stockpiles, if necessary.

The main concern stalking markets is that revolts in the Middle East and North Africa will spread to other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, particularly Iran, the group’s second-largest producer.

Energy consultant Jim Ritterbusch said a “fear premium” has propped up oil prices by about $10 per barrel. That means prices could tumble once the region settles down. “But that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen anytime soon, he said.”

Eni is the biggest oil producer in Libya. It produces about 244,000 barrels of oil and gas per day, or about one-quarter of Libya’s total output. Spain’s Repsol-YPF, which also suspended production Tuesday, produces about 34,777 barrels a day.

BP evacuated 70 people from Libya, including 40 workers and their families. BP isn’t producing oil in Libya, but it has been working on an exploration project. BP has 140 employees at its Libyan operation.

Other oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Germany’s Wintershall, also started pulling out employees. Meanwhile, key Libyan officials resigned and air force pilots defected amid a bloody crackdown on the protests.

In Iran, government opposition groups this week held their largest protests in more than a year, resulting in two deaths, though the demonstrations have failed to gain the momentum seen in North Africa.

Two Iranian naval vessels entered the Suez Canal on Tuesday en route to a training mission in Syria, officials said, the first time that Tehran has sent military ships through the strategic waterway since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Brent crude, which is delivered around the world and is considered a better reflection of global demand than WTI, added 44 cents at $106.18 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. Brent is considered to be more sensitive to possible disruptions of Middle East oil supplies, while large US stockpiles of crude are one of the reasons for the lower WTI prices.

Looking ahead, there are also knock-on effects from high oil prices. A jump in energy costs could hurt consumer spending and stymie a fragile recovery in developed countries.

The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa - which has brought down governments in Tunisia and Egypt and sparked protests in Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Morocco and Jordan -will put added pressure on weaker economies, especially those in Europe, according to Capital Economics.

In the US, a run-up in fuel costs could force businesses and consumers to spend less on other things, slowing both the economy and the pace of hiring.

The US economy picked up momentum at the end of 2010 and is probably growing at about a 3.2% annual rate or more in the first three months of the year. A $10 increase in the price of oil shaves off roughly 0.4% point from economic growth, according to economist Brian Bethune at IHS Global Insight.

The economy could be pushed into a recession if oil prices were to skyrocket to $150 or $160 a barrel, Bethune and other economists say.

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil rose 8 cents to $2.8026 a gallon and gasoline gained 6 cents to $2.7547 a gallon. Natural gas futures lost 2 cents at $3.856 per 1,000 cubic feet.


Source : Live Mint

Sunday, February 20, 2011

All about the process of Union Budget

Why Budget

Only Parliament can authorise the government to collect funds by way of taxes, duties and borrowings. All goverment expenditures need Parliament's approval

Starting the process

The Budget division of the economic affairs department issues a circular to all ministries, states and UTs, autonomous bodies and the defence forces for preparing revised estimates for the current financial year and the budget estimates for the next financial year

The budget team

The finance ministry has the overall responsibility for framing the budget. Each department of the ministry has specific responsibilities:

Department of Expenditure: Expenditure

Department of Economic Affairs: Non-tax revenue, deficit

Department of Revenue: Tax Revenue

With inputs from

The Planning Commission: Sets overall targets for ministries

The Comptroller & Auditor General: Keeps a tab on accounts

Administrative Ministries: State their requirements and plan priorities

Other stakeholders: Extensive consultations are held with other stakehoders - industry, political parties, economists and civil society groups

Once the pre-budget meetings are over, a final call on the tax proposals is taken by the Finance Minister, in consultation with the PM

Passing the budget

Presentation

The Finance Minister presents the Budget in Lok Sabha on the last working day of Feb

The Budget speech has two parts. Part A deals with general economic survey & policy statements while Part B contains taxation proposals

The Annual Financial Statement is laid on the table of the Rajya Sabha after the FM's speech

Discussion

A few days after the Budget is presented, the LS discusses the Budget as whole and not the details for 2 to 3 days

The FM makes a reply at the end of discussion

A Vote on Account for expenditure for the next two months of ensuing year is obtained after which the house is adjourned. During this period, demands for grants are considered by relevant standing committees

Voting

The standing committee reports are presented to the House, which discusses & votes on demands for grants

The Speaker puts all the outstanding demands to the vote of the House. This device is called 'guillotine'.

After the general discussion & voting on demands for grants, the govt introduces the Appropriation Bill. This Bill is to give authority to the govt to incur expenditure from & out of the Consolidated Fund of India

Security trivia

Budget text prepared on computers which are delinked from all networks Several officials and staff are quarantined, right from those involved in printing to legal experts who check the text of the tax acts Intelligence Bureau sleuths keep a close eye on all those quarantined, and all communication devices, including mobile phones, are monitored and sometimes jammed Storage devices are out of bounds

Thursday, February 10, 2011

IRDA okays health cover portability

Holders of health insurance policies can now switch companies without fear of losing benefits of a ‘no claim’ track record or out of concerns that they may have to wait a while before certain health conditions are covered.

The insurance regulator has said on Thursday that insurers must allow policyholders to transfer the credit in terms of waiting period for pre-existing illness and bonus sum insured from one insurer to another. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority on Thursday issued guidelines on portability of health insurance which will be effective from July 1, 2011 and apply to life and general insurance companies.

The insurance regulator’s move to allow portability will hugely benefit disgruntled policyholders who have to put up with poor service from their insurance companies for fear of losing the track record they have built up over the years. For example, if under a previous policy, a medical condition is excluded from coverage for two years and at the end of the second year the policyholder decides to switch, he will not have to go through the same waiting period again.

If under the new plan the waiting period for the same condition is three years, the new health insurance policy can only exclude the condition from coverage for one extra year. The final guidelines are a departure from earlier proposals where a standard policy, similar to the standard motor insurance cover, was mooted which could have been renewed with any insurers . However, given the difference in terms of coverage , the regulator has stuck to the nub of the issue—policyholders losing the track record they have built.

According to insurers, policyholders who shift will have to find a cover similar to their existing policy or accept the new plans. “In a way, it will be similar to mobile portability. Just as a customer opting for a new provider will have to accept the terms of the new plan, the policyholder too will have to accept the terms and conditions of the new insurer,” said Sanjay Datta, head of health at ICICI Lombard General Insurance .

Claims such as those for bypass surgeries are invariably rejected if they occur in the first year of cover on the grounds that such medical conditions do not develop overnight. Insurers agree to pay these claims only if the insured has been continuously covered for a couple of years at least.

IRDA has said that the credit (in terms of waiting period ) would be limited to the sum assured (including bonus ) under the previous policy . The regulator has put the onus on the new insurer for continuing the cover. If the policy results lapses into discontinuance because of any delay by the insurer in accepting the proposalthe insurer shall be bound to continue coverage.

All insurers have been asked to inform policyholders that all health insurance policies are portable and that the policyholder who wants to shift should take action well before the renewal date. According to Datta, the industry will move to a shared database by which an insurance company can immediately figure out the track record of any person who approaches them for health insurance. IRDA has asked companies to share the claim details of the policies, where the policyholder has opted for portability, within seven working days of a request from the renewing insurer.

Easy Switch

IRDA’s move to allow portability will benefit disgruntled policyholders who have to put up with poor service from their insurance companies for fear of losing the track record they have built up over the years

Insurers say policyholders who shift will have to find a cover similar to their existing policy or accept the new plans. The industry will gradually have to move to a shared database.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Track Your PF information on internet and mobile


Over 4.72 crore subscribers of EPFO will soon be able to track status of their claim settlement and account transfer online and also get updates on their mobile  phones .

This will be possible as the entire data of the retirement fund manager EPFO will be digitalised by March-end.

"We have already completed the digitalisation of data at our 113 offices and the work in the remaining seven offices would be completed by the end of next month," Central Provident Fund Commissioner Samirendra Chatterjee told PTI.

"Once the digitalisation process is completed, the account transfer and money withdrawal claims' status could be done and tracked online by Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) subscribers on the mobile phone," he said.
Besides, the subscribers would be intimated via short mobile messages (SMS) about the status of their request for account transfer and claim settlement.

In case of account transfer, the subscribers would get two messages on his or her mobile–first stating that the account is closed followed by one about the amount of money transfered from old to new one, an EPFO official involved in the project said.

Similarly, in claim settlement requests, first SMS message would be for intimating that the EPFO has received their application.

When the claim is settled, applicant would get another message stating the amount is credited in the specified bank account.
 
However, the official said, this facility could only be possible when the subscribers provide their mobile phone numbers in their application forms.
There are some subscribers who hesitate to provide their personal mobile numbers, Chatterjee said.
 
Asked about applying online for account transfer and claim settlement, he replied, "That would be possible in the next phase. But through digitalisation we would try to adhere to the norm of settlement of claims and account transfer in a month's time".

At present, it takes months to settle claims and transfer of accounts because everything is done manually


Source : ET

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Egypt crisis to impact policy: RBI

The crisis in Egypt has raised concerns of a disruption to supply of west Asia oil shipped through Egypt and of unrest spreading across the west Asia and North Africa

Events in Egypt will have an impact on Indian monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor told reporters on Sunday.

“After making the policy announcement on 25th Jan, a whole set of events unfolded in the Middle East (west Asia), which are starting to have an impact on oil prices, obviously, which we did not anticipate at the time we made the announcement,” Subir Gokarn, deputy governor at the central bank, said.

The crisis in Egypt has raised concerns of a disruption to supply of west Asia oil shipped through Egypt and of unrest spreading across the west Asia and North Africa, which combined produce more than a third of the world’s oil.

“So, a completely new environment has emerged in a very short time after the announcement. It is going to have an impact on our thinking, our action going forward,” Gokarn added.

India’s central bank raised interest rates on 25 January by a quarter of a percentage point to clamp down on resurgent inflation and warned of persistently higher food prices unless steps are taken to boost supplies.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Black money list revealed, 15 Indians named

Names of 15 Indians who have stashed away wealth in offshore banks have been made public by Tehelka magazine in its latest issue.

Tehelka claimed it has in possession two more names, but were holding them back for verification. One name is alleged to be that of a prominent politician and the other chairman of a leading company.

The 15 names include Manoj Dhupalia, Rupla Dhupalia, Mohan Dhupalia, Hasmukh Gandhi, Chintan Gandhi, Dilip Mehta , Arun Mehta, Arun Koohar, Gunwanti Mehta, Rajnikant Mehta, Prabodh Mehta, Ashok Jaipuria, Raj Foundation, Urvasi Foundation and Ambunova Trust.

According to information with ET, a member of a promoter family of a reputed Chennai-based business group and some diamond traders also figure in the full list furnished by German authorities to the Indian government two years ago.

The German government purchased the data from an ex-employee of LGT Bank, the flagship bank of Liechtenstein , a country viewed by global banking groups as one of the major tax havens in the world.

Germany handed over the list on March 18, 2009, but the Government had refused to divulge the names as it had to honour the commitment given under tax treaties. Under provisions of the tax treaties, information exchanged is to be used only for the purpose for which it is sought.

Therefore, the government is not in a position to make these names public, but only recover tax on the unaccounted income.

The Income -Tax Department has sent notices asking 15 entities to pay up but the government has taken special care to ensure that no name was released to the public. The amount of money stashed away in Liechtenstein's is minor, compared to the size of the black money stashed in several other offshore banks.

As per an estimate by Tax Justice Network, an NGO, the volume of money lying in these banks could be over $11 trillion.




Wednesday, February 2, 2011

China's largest insurers guilty of three billion yuan fraud

China's national auditor has revealed that two of the country's largest insurers committed financial misconduct involving over three billion yuan in 2009.

The revelations were contained in two reports published by the National Audit Office (NAO).

The reports were produced last year after the NAO audited the 2009 financial reports of all subsidiaries and branches of China Life Insurance ( Group )) Company (China Life) and People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Ltd ( PICC )).

It found that the misconduct and non-compliance in operations and accounting included expense frauds, false premium increases and fake claim settlement cases, the China Daily reported.

The reports also cited other financial problems, including funds secretly kept off account books to avoid regulation. These funds are widely considered to be prone to corruption.

A total of 352 unidentified employees with the companies have been held responsible, and been punished, the reports said.


Source : ET

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

FIIs may turn away from India, inflation; move to Brazil

Brazil and Russia may be emerging more attractive than India to foreign investors this year, as the domestic economy is plagued by inflation and high commodity prices, say brokers and analysts.

These emerging markets have the advantage of being commodity producers and are benefiting from rising prices. India, on the other hand, is a net commodity importer.

“The shift of the FIIs is a cause for worry. When commodity prices rise, valuations for countries such as Brazil and Russia look good. Indonesia is also a commodity producer, but investors are worried about governance issues there,” Mr Atul Singh, Managing Director and Head, Global Wealth & Investment Management, India, DSP Merrill Lynch, told Business Line.

FIIs have pulled out more than $1.2 billion (around Rs 5,800 crore) so far this year, pushing the Sensex below the 18,000 mark in intraday trade on Tuesday. Since January, the benchmark index has fallen 13 per cent from a high of 20,664.

Mr Ashish Gupta, Head of Research at Credit Suisse, said Indian markets have seen “disproportionately high foreign flows” last year ($29 billion). In 2010, “emerging” Asia saw inflows of $64 billion with the most coming into India.

Global investments are likely to also head towards a recovering US market, besides Germany, said Mr Singh. These markets are expected to give 10-15 per cent returns in 2011, while Indian markets are expected to be flat.

“Though higher inflation might be partly priced, we are yet to see significant selling on the part of FIIs. Their selling can take Indian markets down a further 10-15 per cent”, said Mr Suresh A Mahadevan, Analyst at UBS Securities.

Merrill Lynch, however, feels that in the long-term FIIs are likely to head back to India. “The biggest factor is growth expectations. India has fundamental growth, which will be chased by global savings,” said Mr Singh. The brokerage expects FIIs to pump in close to $16 billion this year.

SEBI's new directives to strengthen the reporting process related to offshore derivative instrument and participatory note activity has also discouraged FIIs somewhat. In a circular issued in January, SEBI said that FIIs issuing offshore derivative instruments and participatory notes need to provide trade-wise details of their activities in India by the tenth of every month with a six-month lag (that is, April data by October 10).



Source : Business Line